How to make Postgres use the correct index here?

Here's a test setup:

CREATE TABLE t (
    filename int,
    cropped bool not null default false,
    resized bool not null default false,
    create_date date not null default '1970-01-01'
);

INSERT INTO t
SELECT generate_series(1, 1000000);

UPDATE t SET cropped = true, resized = true
WHERE filename IN (SELECT filename FROM t ORDER BY random() LIMIT 900000);
UPDATE t SET resized = false
WHERE filename IN (SELECT filename FROM t WHERE cropped = true ORDER BY random() LIMIT 1000);

VACUUM FULL t;
ANALYZE t;

[Fiddle](https://dbfiddle.uk/?rdbms=postgres_14&fiddle=f356fd56a920ea8a93c192f5a8c16b1c) Data now looks like this:

SELECT cropped, resized, count(*)
FROM t
GROUP BY 1,2;

I create some partial indexes for other queries and one index specifically for the query below:

CREATE INDEX idx_cropped ON t(cropped) WHERE NOT cropped;
CREATE INDEX idx_resized ON t(resized) WHERE NOT resized;

CREATE INDEX specific ON t(cropped,resized) WHERE cropped AND NOT resized;

Now I run my query:

EXPLAIN ANALYZE
    SELECT count(*) FROM t WHERE cropped AND NOT resized AND create_date   Index Scan using idx_resized on t  (cost=0.29..3777.71 rows=89415 width=0) (actual time=478.177..478.480 rows=1000 loops=1)
        Filter: (cropped AND (create_date   Bitmap Heap Scan on t  (cost=35.50..11652.73 rows=89415 width=0) (actual time=0.054..0.250 rows=1000 loops=1)
        Recheck Cond: (cropped AND (NOT resized))
        Filter: (create_date   Bitmap Index Scan on specific  (cost=0.00..13.15 rows=89415 width=0) (actual time=0.040..0.040 rows=1000 loops=1)

which uses the index specific and completes in less than a ms on both dbfiddle.uk and my machine. ----- Edit: Additional mystery - when I set the values not with an UPDATE but with a DEFAULT, then the correct index is chosen. What is going on? [Fiddle](https://dbfiddle.uk/?rdbms=postgres_14&fiddle=dc7d8aea14e90f08ab6537a855f34d8c)